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Re: New Releases
On Sun, Sep 30, 2001, Eli Marmor wrote about "Re: New Releases":
> If each distro has a new release once per half a year, the chance that
> all the n leading distros will release in the same 20 days (1/9 of half
> a year), is 1 to 9^(n-1).
>
> Is it only a coincidence that all the 3 most widespread distros (SuSE,
> RH, and Mandrake) have new releases in the same time? The chance
> according to the above calculation is 1 to 81, if you are curious...
If indeed each distribution produces a release every 6 months, then the
probability of all coming within 20 days isn't the same every time: if
at one time the releases were synchronized, then the probability of
them continuing to be synchronized (if indeed releases are planned every
6 months) is close to 1, not to 0.
Why do releases sometimes seem synchronized? There are several possible
answers:
1. Maybe they're not? Did you base your "finding" that 9 distributions produce
a relase within 20 days on actual facts? I don't know - I haven't checked.
but if it's true,
2. Distributions like to wait for something major (say, a new version of
KDE, a major release of X11, etc.) to put into their release. Since all
the distributions get the same software, their synchronization points
with big projects' releases are the same.
3. Standard competitive practices: if two big distributions were interleaved,
someone might be tempted to switch to a different distribution rather than
wait 3 more months. Nobody likes to use distribution X while hearing from
his friends that "distribution Y just released a version with version
17.0 of program Z, and you'll have to wait 3 more months for your
slow-poke distribution to play catchup!". New users are many times tempted
by the latest distribution (which, e.g., contains drivers for their
new soundcard/graphics/modem), so no distribution likes to be seen as
"outdated".
--
Nadav Har'El | Sunday, Sep 30 2001, 13 Tishri 5762
nyh@math.technion.ac.il |-----------------------------------------
Phone: +972-53-245868, ICQ 13349191 |If you choke a Smurf, what color does it
http://nadav.harel.org.il |turn?
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