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Re: Don't Be Soft On Microsoft (fwd)



Shlomi Fish <shlomi@slink.co.il> wrote:
|The reason why I think Microsoft is so successful now is simply because =
|the computer and software industry is a "Tornado market". A tornado =
|market is a market that won't stop growing, where demand for developers =
|is conststantly higher than the supply. What it means in human terms is =
|that there is still a global shortage of programmers, there's too much =
|programming work to do and too few who can do it right.=20
|
|Microsoft can survive this way, because there still aren't too many =
|programmers available for developing alternative OSes that it offers. =
|However, once the software market will stop growing and come to a =
|"revaya"=20
|more companies will spring with their own operating systems or OS =
|flavours, in order to battle the no-longer drastically increasing =
|market. That way, I doubt if Microsoft will be able to dominate the =
|market as it does now.

Interesting theory, but there ARE better OS's and applications than
M$'s.  How does this settle with the fact that M$ and Intel is what
99% of the people think as "computer", nothing else exists for them.

My possible answer - marketing.

|
|Obviously, the "revaya" would have it down sides: some programmers will =
|find themselves unemployed.

These would be the worse programmers - get better...:-)

|
|	Shlomi Fish
|
|P.S: I recently read an article in the "Mamon" of a weekend "Yedioth" in =
|which, a "Futurist" claims that in the long run there will be very few =
|programmers because everything new will be programmed using special =
|programs that code other programs. With all due respect, I haven't seen =
|anything that comes close to that vision (except maybe DB platforms as =
|Delphi, Visual Basic, etc.. in a _very_ limited way). Does anybody else =
|think something like that will eventually happen?

I think I read such an article a few months ago.  It talked about the
programming profession extinction within 20 or so years.  I wouldn't
take article too seriously since, though programming is mostly an
engeneering work, someone would still have to build and maintain those
"programming programs".  Just like there is work for construction
engeneers today.  (on the other hand, anything can happen in this
market in 2 decades).

--Amos

--Amos Shapira                    | "Of course Australia was marked for
133 Shlomo Ben-Yosef st.          |  glory, for its people had been chosen
Jerusalem 93 805                  |  by the finest judges in England."
ISRAEL             amos@dsi.co.il |                     -- Anonymous


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