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Re: Something nice to read



"Peter L. Peres" <plp@actcom.co.il> writes:

> On Thu, 1 Apr 1999, guy keren wrote:
> 
> >
> >On Wed, 31 Mar 1999, Peter L. Peres wrote:
> >
> >> >"Linux Commercial Shipments Will Increase at a Four-Year Rate of 25%"
> >> 
> >> I know that this is interesting but let's see 25% (impressing) per four
> >> years, reported to ONE year, and plot that against commercial shipments
> >> of/for other platforms, yes ? Just to keep seeing the woods while looking
> >> at the trees. 
> >
> >i think they refered to "25% per year, on each of the coming 4 years".
> >that is, 25% on 1999, 25% on 2000, 25% on 2001 and 25% on 2002. if you
> >read IDC's reports (or rather, quotes of their reports, i never read any
> >of their full commercial reports) you'll see that all 'rates' are yearly,
> >unless explicitly stated otherwise.
> 
> imho the line above clearly is 'stated otherwise'. I'm very for the 25%
> yearly, but I want to see it happen...
> 
> Peter

Well, Peter, read the report again -- it says compound *annual* growth
rate of 25%, and gives the corresponding number for all the other OS
combined. Here's a direct quote:

"IDC estimates Linux commercial shipments will increase at a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% from 1999 through 2003, compared with
a 10% CAGR for all other client operating environments combined and a
12% CAGR for all other server operating environments combined."

"Compound annual" means that for each 100 commercial Linux systems
shipped now there will be 125 after a year, 156.25 after 2 years,
195.31 after 3 years, and 244.14 after 4 years. That's not 25% after 4
years, that's 144% increase. Of course, given the current market share
of Windows there still may be more Windows shipped in 2003 than
commercial Linuxes in absolute numbers, it's not world domination yet.

I hope you are happier now, Peter ;-) AFAIK, IDC has no vested
interest in Linux.

-- 
Oleg Goldshmidt          goldshmt@netvision.net.il   
BLOOMBERG L.P. (BFM)     oleg@bfr.co.il